Legislative District 6
Here's what we think will happen: Jamescita Peshlakai, Mae Peshlakai and Ian Teller. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Jamescita Peshlakai, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jamescita Peshlakai | 53,114 | 73.2% | 72.9% | >99% |
 Lloyd Johnson | 19,274 | 26.6% | 26.9% | <1% |
About 13,406 votes left. 58 of 98 precincts reporting.
| County | Votes | Counted | Peshlakai | Johnson |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconino | 31,108 | 86% | 72.0% | 27.9% |
| Apache | 23,537 | 82% | 69.0% | 30.8% |
| Navajo | 15,835 | 86% | 80.0% | 19.5% |
| Gila | 1,090 | 69% | 87.8% | 12.0% |
| Graham | 734 | 88% | 90.7% | 9.1% |
| Mohave | 238 | 85% | 74.8% | 25.2% |
| Pinal | 0 | 95% | — | — |
State House
Our estimate: Mae Peshlakai, >99% chance of winning; Ian Teller, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mae Peshlakai | 44,522 | 46.2% | 46.2% | >99% |
 Ian Teller | 41,067 | 42.7% | 42.6% | >99% |
 Brendan Trachsel | 9,115 | 9.5% | 9.5% | <1% |
About 17,633 votes left. 58 of 98 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
| County | Votes | Counted | Peshlakai | Teller | Trachsel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconino | 43,121 | 86% | 46.2% | 41.6% | 10.7% |
| Apache | 28,536 | 82% | 43.2% | 44.4% | 10.4% |
| Navajo | 21,759 | 86% | 49.5% | 42.7% | 6.4% |
| Gila | 1,532 | 69% | 53.9% | 40.7% | 4.6% |
| Graham | 1,023 | 88% | 53.0% | 42.8% | 3.7% |
| Mohave | 299 | 85% | 49.2% | 39.8% | 10.4% |
| Pinal | 0 | 95% | — | — | — |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.