Legislative District 5
Here's what we think will happen: Christine Marsh, Sarah Liguori and Aaron Márquez. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Christine Marsh, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Christine Marsh | 55,121 | 84.2% | 84.1% | >99% |
 Jason LaForest | 9,904 | 15.1% | 15.3% | <1% |
About 14,500 votes left. 58 of 58 precincts reporting.
| County | Votes | Counted | Marsh | LaForest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 65,450 | 82% | 84.2% | 15.1% |
State House
Our estimate: Sarah Liguori, >99% chance of winning; Aaron Márquez, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sarah Liguori | 49,222 | 50.5% | 50.5% | >99% |
 Aaron Márquez | 46,682 | 47.9% | 47.9% | >99% |
About 21,595 votes left. 58 of 58 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
| County | Votes | Counted | Liguori | Márquez |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 97,473 | 82% | 50.5% | 47.9% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.