Legislative District 4
Here's what we think will happen: Aaron Lieberman, Tammy Caputi and Karen Gresham. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Aaron Lieberman, 99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aaron Lieberman | 56,534 | 52.9% | 52.4% | 99% |
 Carine Werner | 50,261 | 47.0% | 47.5% | <1% |
About 23,679 votes left. 70 of 70 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +9.6 |
|---|---|
| Since 2022 | D +4.9 |
| County | Votes | Counted | Lieberman | Werner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 106,881 | 82% | 52.9% | 47.0% |
State House
Our estimate: Tammy Caputi, 97% chance of winning; Karen Gresham, 93% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tammy Caputi | 53,643 | 26.6% | 26.4% | 97% |
 Karen Gresham | 53,379 | 26.5% | 26.2% | 93% |
 Matt Gress | 49,189 | 24.4% | 24.6% | 8% |
 Pamela Carter | 45,364 | 22.5% | 22.7% | <1% |
About 44,677 votes left. 70 of 70 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +11.4 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Caputi | Gresham | Gress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 201,658 | 82% | 26.6% | 26.5% | 24.4% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.