Legislative District 30
Here's what we think will happen: Leo Biasiucci, Mike Gannuscio and David Rose. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Leo Biasiucci, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leo Biasiucci | 66,326 | 98.1% | 98.1% | >99% |
About 12,093 votes left. 37 of 38 precincts reporting.
| County | Votes | Counted | Biasiucci |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mohave | 59,784 | 85% | 98.2% |
| La Paz | 4,035 | 88% | 97.5% |
| Maricopa | 2,572 | 82% | 97.4% |
| Yavapai | 1,197 | 90% | 98.9% |
State House
Our estimate: Mike Gannuscio, >99% chance of winning; David Rose, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mike Gannuscio | 52,841 | 42.0% | 42.1% | >99% |
 David Rose | 50,610 | 40.2% | 40.3% | >99% |
 Brian McMahan | 22,203 | 17.6% | 17.4% | <1% |
About 22,518 votes left. 37 of 38 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +5.7 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Gannuscio | Rose | McMahan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohave | 110,897 | 85% | 42.2% | 40.2% | 17.4% |
| La Paz | 7,697 | 88% | 37.7% | 40.5% | 21.5% |
| Maricopa | 4,961 | 82% | 43.2% | 39.0% | 17.5% |
| Yavapai | 2,360 | 90% | 44.2% | 40.0% | 15.7% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.