Legislative District 3
Here's what we think will happen: John Kavanagh, Cody Reim and George Khalaf. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: John Kavanagh, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 John Kavanagh | 73,696 | 60.5% | 61.0% | >99% |
 Jeffrey Fortney | 47,935 | 39.4% | 38.9% | <1% |
About 26,965 votes left. 59 of 61 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2022 | D +5.2 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Kavanagh | Fortney |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 121,715 | 82% | 60.5% | 39.4% |
State House
Our estimate: Cody Reim, >99% chance of winning; George Khalaf, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cody Reim | 67,585 | 29.7% | 29.9% | >99% |
 George Khalaf | 65,810 | 28.9% | 29.1% | >99% |
 Julie Gable | 48,627 | 21.4% | 21.1% | <1% |
 Richard "Rick" Robert Spargo | 44,076 | 19.4% | 19.1% | <1% |
 John Skirbst | 1,565 | 0.7% | 0.7% | <1% |
About 50,456 votes left. 59 of 61 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
| County | Votes | Counted | Reim | Khalaf | Gable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 227,745 | 82% | 29.7% | 28.9% | 21.4% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.