Legislative District 29
Here's what we think will happen: Janae Shamp, Christine Marie Scianna and Steve Montenegro. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Janae Shamp, 96% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Janae Shamp | 41,332 | 51.5% | 52.0% | 96% |
 Eric Stafford | 38,837 | 48.4% | 47.9% | 3% |
About 17,776 votes left. 49 of 49 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +15.6 |
|---|---|
| Since 2022 | D +14.8 |
| County | Votes | Counted | Shamp | Stafford |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 80,238 | 82% | 51.5% | 48.4% |
State House
Our estimate: Christine Marie Scianna, 74% chance of winning; Steve Montenegro, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Christine Marie Scianna | 38,765 | 33.8% | 33.4% | 74% |
 Steve Montenegro | 38,309 | 33.4% | 33.6% | >99% |
 James Taylor | 37,120 | 32.4% | 32.6% | 25% |
About 25,389 votes left. 49 of 49 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
Stats
| Since 2022 | D +11.7 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Scianna | Montenegro | Taylor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 114,600 | 82% | 33.8% | 33.4% | 32.4% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.