Legislative District 28
Here's what we think will happen: Frank Carroll, David Livingston and Beverly Pingerelli. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Frank Carroll, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Frank Carroll | 62,306 | 57.8% | 58.3% | >99% |
 Michael Braun | 45,354 | 42.1% | 41.6% | <1% |
About 23,868 votes left. 65 of 65 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2022 | D +7.9 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Carroll | Braun |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 107,736 | 82% | 57.8% | 42.1% |
State House
Our estimate: David Livingston, >99% chance of winning; Beverly Pingerelli, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 David Livingston | 58,718 | 28.9% | 29.2% | >99% |
 Beverly Pingerelli | 58,274 | 28.7% | 29.0% | >99% |
 Barbara Fike | 43,659 | 21.5% | 21.3% | <1% |
 Marc Graham | 42,090 | 20.8% | 20.5% | <1% |
About 44,936 votes left. 65 of 65 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
| County | Votes | Counted | Livingston | Pingerelli | Fike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 202,829 | 82% | 28.9% | 28.7% | 21.5% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.