Legislative District 27
Here's what we think will happen: Kyle Clayton, Deborah Howard and Lisa Fink. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Kyle Clayton, 96% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kyle Clayton | 35,728 | 52.6% | 52.1% | 96% |
 Kevin Payne | 32,115 | 47.3% | 47.8% | 3% |
About 15,045 votes left. 54 of 54 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2022 | D +15.6 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Clayton | Payne |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 67,909 | 82% | 52.6% | 47.3% |
State House
Our estimate: Deborah Howard, >99% chance of winning; Lisa Fink, 85% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deborah Howard | 35,879 | 36.9% | 36.5% | >99% |
 Lisa Fink | 30,669 | 31.5% | 31.8% | 85% |
 Tony Rivero | 30,346 | 31.2% | 31.4% | 14% |
About 21,540 votes left. 54 of 54 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +12.5 |
|---|---|
| Since 2022 | D +12.4 |
| County | Votes | Counted | Howard | Fink | Rivero |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 97,225 | 82% | 36.9% | 31.5% | 31.2% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.