Legislative District 26
Here's what we think will happen: Flavio Bravo, Cesar Aguilar and Quantá Crews. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Flavio Bravo, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Flavio Bravo | 24,397 | 76.8% | 76.5% | >99% |
 Jim Bishop | 7,313 | 23.0% | 23.4% | <1% |
About 7,034 votes left. 36 of 36 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +21.2 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Bravo | Bishop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 31,750 | 82% | 76.8% | 23.0% |
State House
Our estimate: Cesar Aguilar, >99% chance of winning; Quantá Crews, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cesar Aguilar | 22,987 | 39.5% | 39.3% | >99% |
 Quantá Crews | 20,986 | 36.0% | 35.9% | >99% |
 Frank Roberts | 6,735 | 11.6% | 11.7% | <1% |
 Jonathan McKenna | 6,369 | 10.9% | 11.1% | <1% |
| Hector Gomez | 1,124 | 1.9% | 1.9% | <1% |
About 12,901 votes left. 36 of 36 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +20.4 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Aguilar | Crews | Roberts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 58,232 | 82% | 39.5% | 36.0% | 11.6% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.