Legislative District 25
Here's what we think will happen: Timothy "Tim" Dunn, Michael Carbone and Nickolas "Nick" Kupper. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Timothy "Tim" Dunn, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Timothy "Tim" Dunn | 41,025 | 55.6% | 56.7% | >99% |
 Laura Huber | 32,774 | 44.4% | 43.2% | <1% |
About 23,592 votes left. 68 of 68 precincts reporting.
| County | Votes | Counted | Dunn | Huber |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 56,448 | 82% | 53.1% | 46.8% |
| Yuma | 17,403 | 61% | 63.4% | 36.5% |
State House
Our estimate: Michael Carbone, >99% chance of winning; Nickolas "Nick" Kupper, 95% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michael Carbone | 37,057 | 35.2% | 35.7% | >99% |
 Nickolas "Nick" Kupper | 34,613 | 32.9% | 33.4% | 95% |
 Tiffany Byrne | 33,118 | 31.5% | 30.6% | 4% |
About 33,735 votes left. 68 of 68 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +15.4 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Carbone | Kupper | Byrne |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 79,994 | 82% | 34.5% | 31.9% | 33.2% |
| Yuma | 25,137 | 61% | 37.5% | 36.2% | 26.1% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.