Legislative District 24
Here's what we think will happen: Analise Ortiz, Alberto Flores and Lisbeth Arescurenaga. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Analise Ortiz, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Analise Ortiz | 23,937 | 73.9% | 73.5% | >99% |
 Frank Steele | 8,435 | 26.0% | 26.4% | <1% |
About 7,180 votes left. 39 of 39 precincts reporting.
| County | Votes | Counted | Ortiz | Steele |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 32,410 | 82% | 73.9% | 26.0% |
State House
Our estimate: Alberto Flores, >99% chance of winning; Lisbeth Arescurenaga, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alberto Flores | 21,321 | 42.1% | 42.0% | >99% |
 Lisbeth Arescurenaga | 20,521 | 40.5% | 40.4% | >99% |
 Delores McLaughlin | 8,635 | 17.1% | 17.3% | <1% |
About 11,213 votes left. 39 of 39 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
| County | Votes | Counted | Flores | Arescurenaga | McLaughlin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 50,612 | 82% | 42.1% | 40.5% | 17.1% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.