Legislative District 23
Here's what we think will happen: Brian Fernandez, Mariana Sandoval and Emilia Cortez. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Brian Fernandez, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brian Fernandez | 28,624 | 62.2% | 62.1% | >99% |
 Michelle Altherr | 17,379 | 37.7% | 37.8% | <1% |
About 16,014 votes left. 49 of 67 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +16.8 |
|---|---|
| Since 2022 | D +17.1 |
| County | Votes | Counted | Fernandez | Altherr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 23,462 | 82% | 55.4% | 44.5% |
| Yuma | 13,047 | 61% | 67.7% | 32.2% |
| Pima | 9,461 | 79% | 71.0% | 28.8% |
| Pinal | 78 | 95% | 94.9% | 5.1% |
State House
Our estimate: Mariana Sandoval, >99% chance of winning; Emilia Cortez, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mariana Sandoval | 25,689 | 31.3% | 31.2% | >99% |
 Emilia Cortez | 25,632 | 31.3% | 31.2% | >99% |
 Michele Peña | 16,054 | 19.6% | 19.7% | <1% |
 Gary Garcia Snyder | 14,539 | 17.7% | 17.8% | <1% |
About 28,270 votes left. 49 of 67 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
| County | Votes | Counted | Sandoval | Cortez | Peña |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 42,434 | 82% | 28.5% | 28.1% | 23.0% |
| Yuma | 22,656 | 61% | 33.4% | 34.0% | 17.0% |
| Pima | 16,757 | 79% | 35.7% | 35.5% | 14.6% |
| Pinal | 133 | 95% | 46.6% | 45.9% | 3.8% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.