Legislative District 22
Here's what we think will happen: Eva Diaz, Betsy Munoz and Elda Luna-Nájera. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Eva Diaz, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eva Diaz | 33,857 | 96.9% | 96.9% | >99% |
About 7,739 votes left. 41 of 41 precincts reporting.
| County | Votes | Counted | Diaz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 34,934 | 82% | 96.9% |
State House
Our estimate: Betsy Munoz, >99% chance of winning; Elda Luna-Nájera, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betsy Munoz | 27,785 | 49.1% | 49.1% | >99% |
 Elda Luna-Nájera | 27,233 | 48.2% | 48.2% | >99% |
About 12,525 votes left. 41 of 41 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
| County | Votes | Counted | Munoz | Luna-Nájera |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 56,533 | 82% | 49.1% | 48.2% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.