Legislative District 21
Here's what we think will happen: Rosanna Gabaldón, Miranda Lopez and Consuelo Hernandez. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Rosanna Gabaldón, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rosanna Gabaldón | 37,703 | 68.8% | 68.3% | >99% |
 Esteban Flores | 17,013 | 31.0% | 31.6% | <1% |
About 12,991 votes left. 28 of 66 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2022 | D +9.7 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Gabaldón | Flores |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pima | 40,072 | 79% | 67.8% | 32.0% |
| Santa Cruz | 10,816 | 87% | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| Cochise | 3,913 | 84% | 63.7% | 36.3% |
State House
Our estimate: Miranda Lopez, >99% chance of winning; Consuelo Hernandez, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Miranda Lopez | 32,880 | 40.1% | 39.9% | >99% |
 Consuelo Hernandez | 31,644 | 38.5% | 38.3% | >99% |
 Christopher Kibbey | 17,202 | 21.0% | 21.3% | <1% |
About 19,481 votes left. 28 of 66 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +12.0 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Lopez | Hernandez | Kibbey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pima | 60,235 | 79% | 39.9% | 37.9% | 21.7% |
| Santa Cruz | 16,075 | 87% | 41.3% | 41.5% | 16.9% |
| Cochise | 5,787 | 84% | 38.0% | 37.0% | 24.7% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.