Legislative District 2
Here's what we think will happen: Amelia Gallitano, Stephanie Simacek and Justin Wilmeth. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Amelia Gallitano, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Amelia Gallitano | 39,847 | 55.9% | 55.4% | >99% |
 Shawnna Bolick | 31,400 | 44.0% | 44.5% | <1% |
About 15,800 votes left. 48 of 48 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +15.6 |
|---|---|
| Since 2022 | D +15.5 |
| County | Votes | Counted | Gallitano | Bolick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 71,316 | 82% | 55.9% | 44.0% |
State House
Our estimate: Stephanie Simacek, >99% chance of winning; Justin Wilmeth, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stephanie Simacek | 40,294 | 41.3% | 40.8% | >99% |
 Justin Wilmeth | 29,652 | 30.4% | 30.6% | >99% |
 Paul Carver | 27,382 | 28.0% | 28.3% | <1% |
About 21,637 votes left. 48 of 48 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +15.3 |
|---|---|
| Since 2022 | D +12.5 |
| County | Votes | Counted | Simacek | Wilmeth | Carver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 97,663 | 82% | 41.3% | 30.4% | 28.0% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.