Legislative District 19
Here's what we think will happen: Gail Griffin, David Gowan and Lupe Diaz. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Gail Griffin, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gail Griffin | 48,420 | 57.4% | 57.5% | >99% |
 Bob Karp | 35,857 | 42.5% | 42.3% | <1% |
About 17,945 votes left. 78 of 94 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +10.3 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Griffin | Karp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cochise | 38,348 | 84% | 59.8% | 40.0% |
| Pima | 32,917 | 79% | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Graham | 9,633 | 88% | 75.2% | 24.7% |
| Greenlee | 2,043 | 78% | 60.6% | 39.3% |
| Santa Cruz | 1,452 | 87% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
State House
Our estimate: David Gowan, >99% chance of winning; Lupe Diaz, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 David Gowan | 45,063 | 29.7% | 29.8% | >99% |
 Lupe Diaz | 41,421 | 27.3% | 27.3% | >99% |
 Jackie O'Donnell Anderson | 33,482 | 22.1% | 22.0% | <1% |
 Aiden Nicholette Swallow | 31,727 | 20.9% | 20.8% | <1% |
About 32,364 votes left. 78 of 94 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
| County | Votes | Counted | Gowan | Diaz | Anderson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cochise | 67,960 | 84% | 31.3% | 28.6% | 20.5% |
| Pima | 60,258 | 79% | 25.5% | 23.3% | 26.2% |
| Graham | 17,299 | 88% | 38.5% | 36.2% | 13.3% |
| Greenlee | 3,656 | 78% | 30.8% | 28.8% | 21.3% |
| Santa Cruz | 2,659 | 87% | 26.1% | 23.5% | 25.4% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.