Legislative District 17
Here's what we think will happen: Edgar Soto, Kevin Volk and Hollace "Holly" Lyon. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Edgar Soto, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Edgar Soto | 60,186 | 54.5% | 54.1% | >99% |
 Christopher King | 50,090 | 45.4% | 45.8% | <1% |
About 27,083 votes left. 5 of 66 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +11.2 |
|---|---|
| Since 2022 | D +11.6 |
| County | Votes | Counted | Soto | King |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pima | 100,251 | 79% | 55.2% | 44.7% |
| Pinal | 10,135 | 95% | 48.3% | 51.7% |
State House
Our estimate: Kevin Volk, >99% chance of winning; Hollace "Holly" Lyon, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kevin Volk | 56,264 | 27.3% | 27.1% | >99% |
 Hollace "Holly" Lyon | 56,035 | 27.1% | 26.9% | >99% |
 John Winchester | 48,052 | 23.3% | 23.5% | <1% |
 Rachel "Jones" Keshel | 45,932 | 22.3% | 22.5% | <1% |
About 50,597 votes left. 5 of 66 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
Stats
| Since 2022 | D +12.5 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Volk | Lyon | Winchester |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pima | 187,242 | 79% | 27.6% | 27.4% | 23.0% |
| Pinal | 19,159 | 95% | 23.8% | 25.2% | 26.0% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.