Legislative District 16
Here's what we think will happen: Elaine Aldrete, Julia Romero Gusse and Teresa Martinez. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Elaine Aldrete, 98% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Elaine Aldrete | 37,808 | 51.1% | 51.2% | 98% |
 Thomas "T.J." Shope | 36,013 | 48.7% | 48.7% | 1% |
About 7,132 votes left. 63 of 80 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +14.4 |
|---|---|
| Since 2022 | D +13.9 |
| County | Votes | Counted | Aldrete | Shope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinal | 59,980 | 95% | 49.4% | 50.5% |
| Pima | 13,597 | 79% | 58.0% | 41.9% |
| Maricopa | 352 | 82% | 86.6% | 12.8% |
State House
Our estimate: Julia Romero Gusse, >99% chance of winning; Teresa Martinez, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Julia Romero Gusse | 39,061 | 36.9% | 36.9% | >99% |
 Teresa Martinez | 34,018 | 32.2% | 32.1% | >99% |
 Chris Lopez | 32,229 | 30.5% | 30.5% | <1% |
About 9,979 votes left. 63 of 80 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +12.9 |
|---|---|
| Since 2022 | D +10.0 |
| County | Votes | Counted | Gusse | Martinez | Lopez |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinal | 86,959 | 95% | 35.4% | 33.1% | 31.0% |
| Pima | 18,428 | 79% | 43.3% | 27.9% | 28.4% |
| Maricopa | 415 | 82% | 73.3% | 14.9% | 11.1% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.