Legislative District 15
Here's what we think will happen: Jake Hoffman, Neal Carter and Michael Way. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Jake Hoffman, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jake Hoffman | 51,476 | 57.2% | 57.5% | >99% |
 Jayme Accalia | 38,400 | 42.7% | 42.4% | <1% |
About 13,921 votes left. 63 of 63 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +18.8 |
|---|---|
| Since 2022 | D +15.0 |
| County | Votes | Counted | Hoffman | Accalia |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 53,284 | 82% | 57.0% | 42.9% |
| Pinal | 36,687 | 95% | 57.5% | 42.4% |
State House
Our estimate: Neal Carter, >99% chance of winning; Michael Way, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Neal Carter | 50,711 | 50.0% | 49.8% | >99% |
 Michael Way | 48,012 | 47.3% | 47.5% | >99% |
About 15,760 votes left. 63 of 63 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
| County | Votes | Counted | Carter | Way |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 60,461 | 82% | 47.8% | 49.8% |
| Pinal | 40,999 | 95% | 53.1% | 43.6% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.