Legislative District 14
Here's what we think will happen: Stephanie Walsh, Mary Rose and Tyler Andrew Farnsworth. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Stephanie Walsh, 84% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stephanie Walsh | 41,683 | 51.4% | 50.9% | 84% |
 Mylie Biggs | 39,333 | 48.5% | 49.0% | 16% |
About 17,966 votes left. 46 of 46 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +23.2 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Walsh | Biggs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 81,093 | 82% | 51.4% | 48.5% |
State House
Our estimate: Mary Rose, 95% chance of winning; Tyler Andrew Farnsworth, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mary Rose | 40,368 | 34.7% | 34.3% | 95% |
 Tyler Andrew Farnsworth | 38,468 | 33.1% | 33.3% | >99% |
 Laurin Hendrix | 37,151 | 31.9% | 32.1% | 5% |
About 25,785 votes left. 46 of 46 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
Stats
| Since 2022 | D +14.1 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Rose | Farnsworth | Hendrix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 116,387 | 82% | 34.7% | 33.1% | 31.9% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.