Legislative District 11
Here's what we think will happen: Catherine Miranda, Oscar De Los Santos and Junelle Cavero. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Catherine Miranda, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Catherine Miranda | 38,070 | 80.6% | 80.3% | >99% |
 Joshua Ayala | 9,092 | 19.3% | 19.6% | <1% |
About 10,459 votes left. 39 of 44 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +17.1 |
|---|---|
| Since 2022 | D +11.0 |
| County | Votes | Counted | Miranda | Ayala |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 47,210 | 82% | 80.6% | 19.3% |
State House
Our estimate: Oscar De Los Santos, >99% chance of winning; Junelle Cavero, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oscar De Los Santos | 35,042 | 41.1% | 41.0% | >99% |
 Junelle Cavero | 33,758 | 39.6% | 39.5% | >99% |
 Joseph Charles Dailey | 8,273 | 9.7% | 9.9% | <1% |
 Cesar Aleman | 8,106 | 9.5% | 9.7% | <1% |
About 18,884 votes left. 39 of 44 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +17.1 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Santos | Cavero | Dailey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 85,238 | 82% | 41.1% | 39.6% | 9.7% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.