Legislative District 10
Here's what we think will happen: David Christian Farnsworth, Justin Olson and James Rogers. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: David Christian Farnsworth, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 David Christian Farnsworth | 41,217 | 52.6% | 53.1% | >99% |
 Blair Moses | 34,200 | 43.7% | 43.3% | <1% |
 Nick Fierro | 2,839 | 3.6% | 3.6% | <1% |
About 16,791 votes left. 48 of 48 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +13.7 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Farnsworth | Moses | Fierro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 74,911 | 82% | 52.5% | 43.9% | 3.6% |
| Pinal | 3,376 | 95% | 55.6% | 40.0% | 4.4% |
State House
Our estimate: Justin Olson, >99% chance of winning; James Rogers, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Justin Olson | 39,627 | 27.1% | 27.3% | >99% |
 James Rogers | 38,778 | 26.5% | 26.7% | >99% |
 Helen Hunter | 33,502 | 22.9% | 22.7% | <1% |
 Brian Calaway | 31,689 | 21.7% | 21.5% | <1% |
 David Scott | 2,519 | 1.7% | 1.7% | <1% |
About 31,381 votes left. 48 of 48 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +13.2 |
|---|
| County | Votes | Counted | Olson | Rogers | Hunter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 140,054 | 82% | 27.1% | 26.4% | 23.0% |
| Pinal | 6,107 | 95% | 28.0% | 28.6% | 21.9% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.