Legislative District 1
Here's what we think will happen: Mark Finchem, Selina Bliss and Quang Huu Nguyen. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Mark Finchem, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mark Finchem | 73,411 | 62.0% | 62.3% | >99% |
 Christine Ellen Dargon | 44,772 | 37.8% | 37.6% | <1% |
About 13,479 votes left. 53 of 55 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +7.6 |
|---|---|
| Since 2022 | D +10.3 |
| County | Votes | Counted | Finchem | Dargon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yavapai | 117,045 | 90% | 62.3% | 37.6% |
| Coconino | 1,265 | 86% | 39.1% | 60.7% |
State House
Our estimate: Selina Bliss, >99% chance of winning; Quang Huu Nguyen, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Selina Bliss | 68,977 | 38.8% | 38.9% | >99% |
 Quang Huu Nguyen | 65,708 | 37.0% | 37.1% | >99% |
 Sandy Zalecki | 42,482 | 23.9% | 23.7% | <1% |
About 20,228 votes left. 53 of 55 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
| County | Votes | Counted | Bliss | Nguyen | Zalecki |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yavapai | 175,936 | 90% | 38.9% | 37.1% | 23.7% |
| Coconino | 1,690 | 86% | 30.1% | 24.3% | 45.3% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.