Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Massachusetts · U.S. House

Massachusetts 1st District

Richard Neal wins. Called.

72% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Richard Neal D won 157,447 65.3%
Nadia Milleron I 83,505 34.7%
Total240,952

Last vote update Nov 4, 5:03 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By town

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Springfield 28,047 — D +34.4 D +65.6 61%
Chicopee 17,420 — D +5.8 D +94.2 78%
Pittsfield 15,043 — D +44.2 D +55.8 81%
Westfield 14,054 — R +4.0 D +104.0 76%
Agawam 10,958 — R +9.3 D +109.3 75%
Holyoke 10,260 — D +31.1 D +68.9 80%
West Springfield 8,792 — D +0.4 D +99.6 76%
Easthampton 8,139 — — — 89%
Ludlow 7,941 — R +8.3 D +108.3 77%
South Hadley 7,422 — D +29.6 D +70.4 82%
Belchertown 7,066 — D +20.2 D +79.8 80%
East Longmeadow 7,024 — D +0.8 D +99.2 79%
Wilbraham 6,786 — D +4.0 D +96.0 81%
Charlton 5,560 — R +12.8 D +112.8 72%
Oxford 5,180 — R +10.5 D +110.5 73%
Palmer 4,473 — R +12.2 D +112.2 75%
Southbridge 4,421 — D +2.5 D +97.5 69%
Sturbridge 4,220 — D +7.3 D +92.7 76%
North Adams 4,217 — D +35.9 D +64.1 82%
Dudley 4,214 — R +13.6 D +113.6 73%
Southwick 4,149 — R +20.0 D +120.0 —
Longmeadow 3,915 — D +26.0 D +74.0 44%
Monson 3,721 — R +9.4 D +109.4 84%
Southampton 3,209 — D +7.5 D +92.5 —
Adams 3,155 — D +22.1 D +77.9 77%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+3,721 votes240,952—
+4,421 votes237,231—
+1,820 votes232,810—
+6,478 votes230,990—
+2,545 votes224,512—
+699 votes221,967—
+3,209 votes221,268—
+7,066 votes218,059—
+22 votes210,993—
+10,260 votes210,971—
+4,214 votes200,711—
+151 votes196,497—